Россия попала в сирийский тупик. Переговоры не просматриваются, а выводить войска надо — Шумилин

Риторика, которую стал применять в последнее время Путин по отношению к сирийскому кризису остался для большинства незаметной, пишет Александр Шумилин — директор центра анализа ближневосточных конфликтов РАН. А ведь МИД России сейчас называет договороспособными те группировки, которые раньше причислял к террористическим. Все это потому, что России позарез нужно выходить из сирийского конфликта. Уже пришел к власти Трамп, а выходов не прослеживается.

Россия, Иран и Турция объявили о перемирии в Сирии между Асадом и вооруженными группировками оппозиции, — продолжает Шумилин.

— Нынешние договоренности о перемирии в Сирии принципиально отличаются от ранее заявленных. Здесь озвучен и другой формат, и иной состав участников. Это перемирие организовано странами — непосредственными участниками боевых действий на территории Сирии. В ситуации, когда Сирия и Иран находятся в сильных позициях в военном отношении и пытаются навязать свое видение шагов к урегулированию конфликта.

Эти договоренности не могут оказаться успешными без участия стран и игроков другой стороны — оппозиции Асада — арабских монархий персидского залива, равно как и стран Запада, Соединенных Штатов Америки, да и ООН.

Россия в этой ситуации — самый заинтересованный игрок. Ей необходимо срочно изобразить процесс умиротворения с переходом в переговорное русло с целью начала вывода войск с территории Сирии.

Путин не может выводить войска без начала переговорного процесса, а оно пока даже не просматривается. Это важное условие сокращения военного присутствия в Сирии.

Отношение российских властей к «группировкам умеренной оппозиции» не сильно изменилось, вопреки звучащим заявлениям. Они делают основной аспект на ИГИЛ и «Джебхат ан-Нусру» (террористические организации, запрещенные в РФ) как на главных террористических группировках, но также приплюсовывают и другие, попутно меняя к ним отношение на противоположное и наоборот. Но те организации, которые входят в список ООН как террористические, как раньше, так и сейчас, естественно, остаются вне договоренностей. И в ситуации с ними разобраться достаточно трудно.

Позиция Запада — никто не хочет вмешиваться

Официальная реакция Запада и США в отношении договоренностей о перемирии, конечно, не может не быть положительной. В действительности же она — спокойно-отстраненная, все ждут, к каким последствиям они приведут, что из этого может получиться. Главное: никто не хочет вмешиваться. Ждут, возможно, действий со стороны Америки — главного игрока на Западе, но страна сейчас недееспособна.

Сирийские договоренности должны были стать орудием для налаживания отношений с Трампом. Но как все сложиться — до сих пор неизвестно.

Путин рассчитывает, что сирийские договоренности станут орудием для налаживания отношений с Трампом. Трамп, может, тоже рассчитывает на это. Но главный вопрос сейчас — кто такой Трамп и что от него ждать?

Все сейчас рассматривается как поле потенциального согласия, а как сложится на самом деле — увидим.

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