Скоро полтора года воюем. И где победа? Российские СМИ о Сирии

Война в Сирии продолжается и нет ей конца. То что Сирия превратилась во второй Афганистан, уже никто не сомневается. И выходить из этой авантюры прийдеться как и из Афгана — молча, бросая все, оставив себе на память погибших, раненных, разбитую от санкций экономику и горькое чувство о не сделанной работе.

Российские СМИ задаються вопросом — как долго еще будет продолжаться и когда вернуться солдаты

Война в Сирии-2017: когда возвращаться солдатам — спрашивают журналисты в КМ.РУ

Вообще-то спрогнозировать, когда и чем закончится наше участие в этой войне, — дело весьма неблагодарное. Многие пытались это сделать. Ни у кого пока не получилось. Слишком размыты исходные данные. Слишком непредсказуем, коварен, неуловим и могуч противник — международный терроризм. Слишком неясны критерии победы над ним. А ведь именно победу мы и объявили главной целью своей военной кампании на Ближнем Востоке.

Понятно, что с самого начала с плана операции в Сирии в Кремле пытались стряхнуть даже намек на повторение «Афгана». От опасных аналогий с первого дня вступления в войну принялись открещиваться как черт от ладана.

Афганистан стал последней войной СССР. Катализатором распада страны

Так, 30 сентября 2015 года, спустя всего несколько дней после того, как в сирийской небе появились первые российские боевые самолеты, президент РФ Владимир Путин заявил, что Москва «не собирается погружаться в этот конфликт с головой». По словам Путина, мы будем воевать в Сирии лишь до тех пор, пока наступательные операции проводит правительственная армия Башара Асада.

Но что значит: «пока продолжаются наступательные операции правительственной армии»? Где продолжаются — под Идлибом? Под Алеппо? Под Дамаском? Или вообще — хотя бы где-либо в этой стране? Хотя бы за отдельно взятую деревню?

Ведь всем очевидно: бои в Сирии не первый год идут с переменным успехом. Армия Асада то бойко наступает по путям, прокладываемым российскими ракетами и бомбами, то легко сдает завоеванные позиции. Как это недавно случилось, скажем, в Пальмире. Если мы в этой стране собираемся быть столько, сколько продлится эта чехарда, то, боюсь, рискуем вообще никогда не покинуть Сирию.

Где тот рейхстаг, знамя над которым будет означать, что мы в этой стране, наконец, победили и можем уходить оттуда с высоко поднятой головой? Никто, включая президента Путина, этого пока не обозначил. И потому перспективы завершения операции на Ближнем Востоке пока скрываются из виду как стены древнего Дамаска в мареве частой в тех краях пыльной бури.

Однако сворачивать российское участие в войне все равно придется. И, судя по всему, очень скоро. К этому подталкивает ряд безжалостных факторов.

Определенно можно утверждать: многое в Сирии с самого начала пошло не так, как представлялось Кремлю в сентябре 2015 года. Исчерпывающе определенно об этом в сентябре 2016 года заявил заместитель главы МИД РФ Михаил Богданов: «Когда начинались наши активные действия и наши ВКС были подключены к борьбе с террористами, мы тогда рассчитывали, что операция продлится несколько месяцев. Сегодня мы отмечаем годовщину, и пока конца этой нашей работы не видно».

Россия по мнению военных и политических экспертов вмешалась слишком поздно. Когда помочь Ассаду было уже невозможно

Более конкретно о сроках российского участия осенью 2015 года высказался председатель комитета Госдумы по международным делам Алексей Пушков. По словам депутата, боевые действия российской авиации и флота в восточном Средиземноморье завершатся в срок до четырех месяцев. Прошло уже четыре раза по четыре месяца, а конца эпопеи не видно.

Точно так же в сроках окончания операции ошибался, как стало ясно теперь, и официальный Дамаск. Там явно слишком легкомысленно оценивали боевые возможности своей армии, которой, как ни крути, отводится основная роль на поле боя. И полагали, что при энергичной поддержке Воздушно-Космических сил России за год справятся с террористическим интернационалом. Во всяком случае, сирийский посол в Москве Рияд Хаддад в октябре 2015 года заявлял: «Мы не можем конкретно назвать дату окончания операции, но я не считаю, что она продлится больше года».

Скоро полтора года воюем. И где победа?

Прямым следствие просчетов политиков стали совершенно очевидные сегодня ошибки Генерального штаба Вооруженных сил РФ в планировании боевых действий. Прежде всего — в их тыловом обеспечении.

Вполне понятно, что в начале осени-2015 военные собирались снабжать нашу группировку на авиабазе Хмеймим и в пункте материально-технического обеспечения в Тартусе исключительно Военно-транспортной авиацией ВКС РФ, а также большими десантными кораблями, танкерами, транспортными, буксирными и килекторными судами, имевшимися в распоряжении Военно-Морского флота РФ. Но когда стало понятным, что война опасно затягивается, пришлось искать дополнительные резервы для экстренного пополнения «сирийского экспресса».

В Турции по дешевке срочно закупили восемь крайне изношенных сухогрузов. В Новороссийске их привели в более-менее пристойное техническое состояние, зачислили в списки вспомогательных судов ВМФ РФ и под новыми флагами отправили на войну.

На линию Новороссийск-Тартус срочно поставили даже большой морской сухогрузный транспорт специального назначения «Яуза», находящийся в подчинении 12-го Главного управления Министерства обороны России. Имеющее усиленный ледовый пояс, это судно предназначено для обеспечения нашего ядерного полигона на архипелаге Новая Земля. А вышло, что пригодилось в водах почти тропических.

Принятые меры позволили несколько снизить напряжение на линии «сирийского экспресса». Но, конечно, окончательно проблему не решили. Моторесурс судов и кораблей, в непрерывном режиме обеспечивающих боеприпасами, продовольствием, оружием и боевой техникой нашу группировку в Сирии, совершенно точно не беспределен. Один за другим героические участники «сирийского экспресса» выходят из строя. Как это уже произошло, например, с большим десантным кораблем «Кондопога» (Северный флот), минувшей осенью после похода в Сирию отправленным в незапланированный ремонт. Увы, судя по всему, этот процесс в ближайшие месяцы просто обречен ускориться.

Впрочем, все обостряющиеся проблемы технического обеспечения войны — не единственные, заставляющие Кремль подумывать о том, как с достоинством выйти из сложнейшей политической ситуации на Ближнем Востоке. И даже — не главные. Главные факторы все же финансовые.

И российские, и зарубежные эксперты примерно сходятся в расчетах: каждый день участия в сирийской войне обходится нашей стране в сумму от $ 2 500 000 (подсчеты экспертов агентства РБК, сделанные в 2015 году) до $ 4 000 000 (мнение британского аналитического центра IHS Jane’s).

При этом уже упомянутый IHS Jane’s детализировал свои вычисления. По ним каждый час полета боевого самолета в среднем стоит $ 12 000, вертолета — $ 3 000. Учитывая, что один вылет штурмовика или фронтового бомбардировщика для нанесения ракетно-бомбового удара обычно длится где-то по 90 минут, а «вертушки» летают приблизительно по часу в день, только по этой статье Москва расходует примерно $ 710 000 каждые 24 часа.

Ежедневно, считают британские эксперты, российская авиация сбрасывает на позиции террористов боеприпасов примерно на $ 750 000. Удары высокоточным оружием, естественно, намного дороже. Так, полагает IHS Jane’s, каждая крылатая ракета большой дальности «Калибр» корабельного базирования обходится казне РФ в $ 1 200 000.

Далее: содержание личного состава авиабазы Хмеймим — примерно $ 440 000 в день. Еще $ 200 000 — на топливо и продовольствие для кораблей нашего оперативного соединения в Средиземном море. На логистику, сбор разведданных и инженерно-технические работы — еще $ 250 000 в день. Складываются очень серьезные миллионы.

По теме: Ситуация удручающая — Стрелков о войне в Сирии

Когда операция только начиналась, Москва не раз заявляла, что дополнительных средств она не потребует. Все, дескать, вписывается в рамках статьи «Боевая подготовка» оборонного бюджета страны. Бомбы стоят одинаково — что сброшенные на террористов, что на полигон где-нибудь под Воронежем или Липецком.

И это, конечно, убедительно. Действительно, многие военные эксперты уверены, что год боевых действий на Ближнем Востоке в исполнении нашей очень немногочисленной группировки не требует топлива и боеприпасов больше, чем любые крупные учения внутри страны. Но дело в том, что, допустим, в минувшем году мы вынуждены были одновременно с продолжением войны в Сирии организовывать еще и крупнейшие стратегические командно-штабные учения «Кавказ-2016». На нынешний год запланированы еще более грандиозные маневры «Запад-2017». Причем, одновременно с серьезным сокращением оборонного бюджета страны.

Поэтому очень сомнительно, что и эти маневры, и сирийская кампания, как в 2015 году, вписываются в бюджетную статью Минобороны на боевую подготовку. Ну, не бывает чудес на свете. Как не бывает и бесплатных войн.

В Кремле ищут выход из затянувшейся экспедиции, но пока не находят

Неудивительно, что в Кремле, без сомнений, давно ищут пристойный выход из затянувшейся экспедиции. Впервые это стало очевидным, когда 14 марта 2016 года Путин отдал приказ о выводе основных сил российской группировки с сирийской авиабазы. Однако не похоже, что интенсивность боевых действий снизилась синхронно с этим решением. Во всяком случае, зарубежные информационные агентства отмечали, что объем грузоперевозок между Новороссийском и Тартусом после заявления президента РФ не только не снизился, но и возрос.

Потом завертелось вокруг Алеппо. Потом группировку ПВО в Хмеймим пришлось усиливать батареей ЗРС С-300ВМ. Потом в восточное Средиземноморье отправилось крупнейшее в истории нашего ВМФ авианосное соединение во главе с «Адмиралом Кузнецовым». Потом в Сирию направили крупное подразделение российской военной полиции. Следом — многочисленных саперов с роботами разминирования «Уран-6».

Согласитесь, как-то совсем не похоже на сокращение военного присутствия на этих берегах. Скорее — наоборот.

Новую попытку потихоньку выходить из войны руководство РФ решило сделать, похоже, несколько недель назад. В декабре 2016 года министр обороны Сергей Шойгу отрапортовал, что «действия Воздушно-Космических сил России переломили ход борьбы с терроризмом» в Сирии. И, следовательно, можно оттуда выбираться. 29 декабря президент РФ заявил, что согласен с предложением Минобороны по сокращению военного присутствия в Сирии.

По теме: В СИРИИ ПОГИБЛА ГРУППА РЯЗАНСКИХ ДЕСАНТНИКОВ

Почти тут же, 6 января, начальник Генерального штаба ВС РФ генерал армии Валерий Герасимов объявил, что приказал авианосцу «Адмирал Кузнецов» и кораблям сопровождения покинуть Средиземное море и возвращаться в Североморск.

Впрочем, на самом деле с распоряжением Путина эта новость никак не связана — чистой воды совпадение. Что именно в январе «Кузнецову» предстоит возвращаться восвояси, было известно с самого начала его похода. В феврале авианосец должен встать на многолетнюю модернизацию в Северодвинске. Место у причала и деньги на это давно выделены, оборудование закупается, простой огромного завода невозможен.

Тем не менее, означают ли все эти факты, что окончание нашего участия в войне в Сирии не за горами? И конкретнее — что операция будет свернута уже в 2017 году? С этими вопросами мы обратились к заместителю директора Института политического и военного анализа Александру Храмчихину.

— Я сомневаюсь, что нам удастся в обозримой перспективе прекратить операцию. На это влияет масса политических, военных и прочих обстоятельств. Мой прогноз — скорее «нет», чем «да». Все останется на том же уровне.

— Но решение Путина о сокращении российского военного присутствия в Сирии разве не начало движения в обратном направлении?

— Путин однажды уже заявлял о подобном решении, но ничего не изменилось. Ведь понятно, что чем ниже уровень нашего присутствия в Сирии, тем ниже результаты борьбы с международным терроризмом.

— В таком случае, когда же нам удастся без ущерба для своих интересов прекратить боевые действия в этой стране?

— Когда победим террористов.

— А как должна выглядеть такая победа? Каковы ее критерии?

— Критерий один — возвращение всей Сирии под контроль президента Асада.

— Вы полагаете, это возможно? Особенно с учетом турецкого фактора? Анкара же не просто так вторглась в Сирию и начала там свою операцию «Щит Евфрата». Тоже, как минимум, захочет, наверное, получить кусок этой страны. Да и Асад не самый большой друг президента Эрдогана, с которым мы на сегодняшний день почти союзники в регионе. Не воевать же еще и с ним за Сирию?

По теме: Москва признала, что пришлось позволить Турции оккупировать часть Сирии

— Пока Турция на Ближнем Востоке ведет фактически нашу игру. Для меня удивительно, как вообще удалось этого добиться. Но как-то договорились. Возможно, сумеем находить общий язык и в будущем.

По материалам KM.ru.

 

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